Latino Voters Could Be the Plot Twist in the 2026 Midterms After Texas Tried To Limit Their Power by Redistricting
The redistricting fight is playing out in real time for the American public. Recently, the Texas legislature passed a new map they hope will net them five new Republican seats in the House of Representatives. Shortly after, California lawmakers followed through on their promise to change the electoral maps to balance out Texas’s redistricting. As the dust settled, Texas lawmakers realized that they might have made a mistake in changing their maps so quickly. The power of the maps lies with Latino voters.
The 2026 midterm elections could hinge largely on Latino voters
Texas officials claim they redistricted to help Latino voters, but the new map tells a different story. By redrawing districts mid-decade, they dilute Latino voting power. According to The Guardian, the new Texas electoral map does more to disenfranchise and dilute Latino voters.
An example of this voter suppression is Texas’s 35th Congressional District. Rep. Greg Casar currently represents a district designed to give Latinos a real chance to elect leaders who understand their needs. Lawmakers created the district after a prolonged legal battle aimed at securing fair representation for Texas’s largest population.
“Even a conservative supreme court said central Texas Latinos deserve a district, and that’s why my district exists,” Rep. Casar told The Guardian. “If Donald Trump is able to suppress Latino voters here in Austin, he’ll try to spread that plan across America.”
Latinos make up 40 percent of Texas’s population; however, they represent just one-fifth of the Texas House delegation. The underrepresentation of Texas’s largest population is no accident, according to voting rights activists. The new map makes it worse.
Two law firms filed a lawsuit against the redistricted map of Texas. The lawsuit claims that the new electoral map used information from the 2021 redistricting, and it violates the U.S. Constitution’s Equal Protection Clause.
“Even if racial and partisan considerations are an unavoidable part of redistricting, there is no need for legislatures to take those considerations into account a second time in a single decade,” reads the complaint, according to The Texas Tribune.
Things could backfire for Texas Republicans
Conservative journalist David Drucker was recently on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” and painted a different picture. According to Drucker, Texas Republicans are worried about the new map shortly after finalizing it. The concern is President Donald Trump’s growing unpopularity among Latino voters.
Latinos helped to usher in President Trump’s second term. According to Pew Research Center, President Trump did better with Latinos than any Republican preisdential candidate since the 1970s with 48 percent of the vote.
However, things often change between presidential elections and midterms, when people can voice their opinion of the current administration. President Trump’s second term has been a terrifying time for Latino and immigrant communities. The Trump administration has deployed federal agents and the military to American cities to push the mass deportation agenda.
Latino support for Trump is falling fast
Americans watched as thousands of people were taken from their homes, jobs, immigration courts, and hospitals. The Trump administration has also leaned in on using rhetoric aimed at dehumanizing and villainizing Latinos as criminals. This has led to a noticeable and fast decline in support for President Trump.
According to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll, Latino support of President Trump has dropped to 34 percent. The shift in loyalty to President Trump and the Republican Party could mean trouble for the new Texas electoral map.
“If you look at that Texas map, some is dark red, a lot of it is shaded light red. And that means if this atmosphere goes against the president and his party next year, I’ve had Republicans in Texas tell me they’re worried instead of gaining five seats, you could have ten competitive seats and you could end up losing seats,” Drucker said on Morning Joe. “But in the long term, what you end up with are politicians that don’t have a general election to worry about. They have a nomination fight to worry about. And that means they can hold the line, not do anything, get rewarded, and the cycle continues.”
The real test will come next year when voters take to the polls.
