Recent polls show that President Donald Trump is losing support among Latino voters, especially with men. The new data shows large swings in President Trump’s overall favorability, job approval, and economic approval to the negative. The study, conducted by Global Strategy Group for Somos Votantes, polled Latino voters between Aug. 26 and Sept. 4 and shows a growing discontent with the current president.

President Donald Trump is losing support with Latino voters

Latino voters are defecting away from President Donald Trump in large numbers across all demographics, a new study shows. President Trump’s overall favorability is underwater by 20. Fifty-nine percent of Latino voters have an unfavorable view of President Trump, while only 39 percent approve. In February, Fifty-five percent of Latino voters had an unfavorable view of President Trump, while 43 percent viewed him as favorable.

The largest shift in polling for President Trump is with independent voters on his economic approval rating. The president is underwater by 45 points with independent Latino voters, with 25 approving and 70 disapproving in September. In February, the president was in the negative by only 6 points with 40 approving and 46 disapproving, representing a 39-point swing in the negative.

Latino voters between 18-29 had the largest defections away from President Trump. The study showed that those voters find President Trump unfavorable by 34 points in September, compared to 11 points in February. Additionally, the president’s job approval rating with Latino voters 18-29 is -34 in September, compared to -6 in February. Similarly, the economic approval rating among young Latino voters is -37 in September compared to -5 in February.

Now, this doesn’t mean that these voters are defecting to the Democratic Party. However, it does show that Republicans are losing gains made in the last election in a key voting bloc needed to maintain power.

The president is underwater with Latino men for the first time since February

According to the study, President Trump’s favorability with Latino men in February was tied 50 to 50. In May, the president increased his favorability with Latino men by five points, with 42 percent viewing him favorably and 37 percent viewing him unfavorably. However, in September, Latino men shifted and now view the president unfavorably by five points, a 10-point swing.

His net job approval with Latino men grew from two to three points between February and May. Then, in September, sentiment swung nine points, putting President Trump -6 with Latino men. The president maintained a one-point disapproval rating on the economy in February and May with Latino men. That number increased to a 10-point disapproval of his handling of the economy.

“What began earlier this year with independents and women has really intensified and spread to basically every demographic subset of the Latino electorate, including groups that once leaned toward him like Latino men,” Melissa Morales, the president of Somos Votantes, told POLITICO.

A similar trend is happening in Texas with Latino and independent voters

Data from The Texas Politics Project, Latino voters are deflecting from the president in the Lone Star State. The president is 32 points underwater with Latino voters in Texas with only 30 percent of respondents viewing him as favorable compared to 47 percent in February. Similar to the Somos Votantes poll, the data from The Texas Politics Project shows a steady deflection of Latino voters away from the president.

The news is considerably worse among independent voters in Texas. President Trump’s favorability is 47 points underwater with independent voters. Of those polled, 61 percent view him unfavorably while only 14 percent view him favorably. Twenty-four percent of respondents said they don’t know how they feel about the president.

Why does this matter?

There are two different theories floating around about what the new congressional map in Texas means. Earlier this year, Texas lawmakers created a new congressional map. It is reported to be in answer to President Trump asking for the state to create five new Republican seats in the House.

Texas Republicans, including Governor Greg Abbott, claim that they created the new congressional map to give Latino voters more say. The argument is that Latino voters showed up for President Trump in Texas, and the state’s lawmakers wanted to create majority-Latino districts to give voters a chance for better representation.

Groups suing the state over the new congressional map see things differently. They argue that the Republican-controlled legislature is trying to pack large numbers of non-voting Latinos into districts to boost their support.

“For the Republicans, the theory of the maps is to pack non-voting Hispanics into a rural-focused district on the assumption that they don’t vote, in which case a Republican wins, or they vote Republican, in which case a Republican wins,” Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at University of Houston, told The Texas Tribune.

If Texas Republicans are being honest about why they created the congressional map, it could spell disaster for the Republican Party. The party is relying on the 2024 gains with Latino voters to continue into the midterm. However, the new polling of Latino voters could be a warning sign for Republicans, especially in Texas.

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